Technology and also Transition

Over the last century there has been rapid development in modern technology. Just how able are we to forecast the future of modern technology as well as what are the social results of increased modern technology use?

Innovation and Change

Background and also future trends:
The most effective recap of the background of information technologies is a chart that shows the estimations per 2nd per $1,000 from 1900 to today. [1] [2] (Try googling calculations per 2nd per $1,000) What we see when we consider these numbers is exponential growth.

Up take of the printing machine took hundreds of years; uptake of the radio as well as TELEVISION took years; uptake of the computer as well as mobile phones took years. The kitsch and also yet impressive comparison that is typically trotted out in conversations such as this is that there mores than 100 times more computing power in our cellular phone than there remained in the Apollo Room Program.

Each time we get to the capacity of one innovation, a brand-new one appears that takes the technology to the next degree. Vacuum cleaner tubes were changed by transistors, which were replaced by chips, which will most likely be replaced by 3 dimensional self-organising molecular circuits or possibly even quantum computer systems.

I very much like the observation by Ray Kurzweil in his TED talk [3] that this rapid growth is the outcome of around the world chaotic practices and also when we watch it from a range we see the pattern and also the fad.

I additionally such as the observation from the very same talk that while we can not forecast the behavior of a solitary molecule we can forecast the practices of gasses. While we can not forecast the behaviour of a private, we can forecast the behavior of crowds. This, combined with Philip Rosenthal’s observation [4] that when the internet was being built no one understood or had time to believe what it would come to be, provides us with a look right into the nature of development. Evolution is:

Disorderly at the mini degree
Predictable at the macro degree
Out of any type of a single person’s control
Takes place through market (for want of a better term) forces
Is rapid

In the 1950’s forecasts concerning life in the year 2000 mainly focused on a continuation of the transport transformation; flying cars, space travel etc. Rarely was the change in ICT forecasted. While individuals like Ray Kurzweil may be able to predict the extension of the depreciation of price and the increase in the computing power of innovations, it is unlikely that we can predict the area that will have one of the most profound result. link : s188

” We will prosper backwards engineering the brain by the 2020’s” Ray Kurzweil. [5] And according to Kurzweil’s figures, it will be readily available for $1,000!!!

The crucial locations that technology is impacting currently consist of:


Surprisingly, from my experience dealing with a number of companies in the pharmaceutical markets, the revolution in the chemistry sector appears to be passing and being changed by the biotech industry. Drug firms’ pipelines of brand-new drugs are reducing in comparison to the prime times of the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, as well as 80’s.

According to Jeremy Butler [6] there are four essential stages in the development of information technology. They are:

pre-mechanical (3000 BC– 1450 AD).
mechanical (1450– 1840).
electromechanical (1840– 1940).
digital (1940 to existing).
Social issues:.
There is no question that ICT has actually offered us with the chance to be more aware of concerns as well as incidents with a boosted breadth as well as deepness. While the quantity as well as rate of info has actually significantly raised, the high quality of that details and where the general public choose to focus its focus is still in question.

ICT can additionally aggravate the well documented mental preference for confirmation prejudice. [7] Users of ICT can search for and also find information to sustain current biases, inaccurate assumptions or factually wrong information. You can even sign up with teams to advance your own ignorance.

There is an increased capacity to capture and also keep information concerning us. This will constantly be utilized for good as well as poor objectives. Yes some people utilize it to market and also advertise … and maybe that isn’t a bad thing … at the very least currently I just need to endure advertisements for things I’m actually curious about. The disadvantage is the decrease in luck of the discovery of something new beyond my existing rate of interests.

Yes, we shed privacy and also maybe even our identity, as well as what we get is sharper info regarding exactly how we act as well as how to enhance our culture and also atmosphere to better suit our preferences.

There are an increasing variety of studies that suggest that ICT is re-shaping our brains. Professor George Patton from the Royal Children’s Hospital’s Centre for Adolescent Wellness in Melbourne claims he sees kids that engage in digital media for the whole day and believes it is re-wiring the mind. [8]
Concerns around the social results of ICT include:.

reduced attention span.
a choice for size of info as opposed to depth.
boost in obsessive behaviors such as ‘liking’ points on Facebook and continuous tracking of inbound messages.
Boost in distractibility.